Why does the French Presidential Election matter to the UK? – Telegraph.co.uk

Neither of these may be immediately possible, but regional analysts like Mujtaba Rahman the head of Europe practice at the Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy, predicts that a Le Pen victory would very likely spark chaos in the financial markets as institutional investors ditch billions of euros of French sovereign debt and flee to the safety of sterling and the dollar.

Even if this crisis can be stabilised, in the longer term Ms Le Pen’s economic nationalism, which like Trump’s own agenda portends a return to protectionism, also threatens to seriously damage the EU’s single market which is currently the destination for 43 per cent of British exports.

There are some hardcore Brexiteers who believe that a Le Pen victory might be good for Britain’s prospects in the Brexit talks, since it would land a potentially fatal blow on the EU, an institution that they revile.

But this is not a view shared by Theresa May or British negotiators who fear that a shock Le Pen presidency would sow chaos in the EU, making Britain’s negotiating partners even more defensive and hardline, possibly paralysing EU decision-making to the point where it is impossible to do a deal in two years.

The meaning of a Macron win

A win for Emmanuel Macron, the fresh-faced former Rothschild banker, will also impact the Brexit talks, although not as drastically as Ms Le Pen.

Polls show that Mr Macron is very likely to beat Ms Le Pen in the second-round run-off in May, though in the era of Trump and Brexit that is not an absolute certainty.

Why does the French Presidential Election matter to the UK? – Telegraph.co.uk

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